Top-Tier Real Estate: Fall 2023 State of Luxury Report

As the country’s housing market continued to wrestle with the challenges of elevated mortgage rates, uneven economic performance and intense geopolitical turbulence, reviving luxury single family home sales in the third quarter of the year revealed the relative resilience and adaptability of luxury real estate buyers, as well as Canadians’ unwavering desire to attain home ownership. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: Fall 2023 State of Luxury Report, luxury single family home sales in Canada’s largest residential real estate markets renewed in the third quarter of 2023, even as activity in the luxury condominium market tempered, a reflection of changing housing considerations, consumer preferences and financial strategies in light of rising housing prices and carrying costs. 

Market Highlights

Top-Tier Real Estate:

Fall 2023 State of Luxury Report

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Toronto

Across the country’s largest luxury real estate market, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), residential real estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) were up 32% year-over-year between July 1– August 31 overall. While single family home sales over $4 million increased 37% year-over-year, $4 million-plus condominium sales retreated 25% from last summer’s levels. Overall, GTA residential sales over $1 million were up 10% year-over-year over the summer months. Initial fall activity foreshadows a steady market ahead, as sales over $4 million in the GTA saw an uptick of 3% year-over-year between September 1–30. During this time, $4 million-plus single-family home sales saw an annual 25% gain while condominium sales over $4 million fell to one transaction from five sales in September 2022.  Overall residential sales over $1 million fell a marginal 4% short of September 2022 sales.

Vancouver

Sales activity in Vancouver’s luxury real estate market revitalized in the third quarter of the year, propelled by a surge of unanticipated activity in the city’s single-family home market. From July 1– August 31, overall luxury residential sales over $4 million were up 96% from the summer of 2022, with $4 million-plus single-family home sales up 145% year-over-year while $4 million-plus condominium sales fell 25%.  Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales were up 28% year-over-year during this time. Luxury activity in the month of September suggests consumer uneasiness as the market continues to adjust. Residential sales over $4 million pulled back by 29% from September 2022 levels overall, with single-family home sales over $4 million falling 26% year-over-year. Meanwhile, one condominium sold over $4 million compared to two sales in September. Overall, residential sales over $1 million were down 31% year-over-year in September. 

Montreal

Sales activity renewed in Montreal’s luxury residential real estate market in the third quarter of 2023, despite growing discord between the expectations of prospective sellers and buyers. From July 1–August 31, $4 million-plus residential sales remained relatively stable with a marginal increase to nine transactions compared to eight in the previous summer, while sales over $1 million were up 31% year-over-year. September sales activity foreshadows a market that continues to tread a tenuous balance despite the widening divide between buyer and seller price expectations. Residential sales over $1 million held steady with a marginal 4% gain, while three properties sold over $4 million, compared to two transactions in September 2022.

Calgary

Calgary’s luxury market momentum outstripped that of other major Canadian cities in the third quarter of 2023, as the fortitude of the city’s economic performance, population gains, and consumer confidence lifted sales. Residential sales over $1 million soared over the summer months, as sales climbed 69% year-over-year in July 1– August 31, with $1 million-plus single family homes comprising 88% of these the transactions.  One $4 million-plus property, a single family home, sold over the summer, on par with seasonal levels in 2022 and 2021. September luxury sales activity foreshadows an active and healthy market ahead. Between September 1–30, overall residential real estate sales over $1 million more than doubled with a 106% year-over-year gain. During this time, $1 million-plus single family home sales were up 105% year-over-year, while condominium sales over $1 million remained muted, with five units sold compared to seven sold last September.

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*Disclaimer

The information contained in this report references market data from MLS boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada or Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.

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